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Another worrisome scenario is that one or more terrorist groups may shift from an
instrumentalist to an organizational perspective that becomes increasingly cult-like as a
charismatic leader‘s decision-making becomes more and more idiosyncratic and irrational.
If such a group obtained a WMD device such as a nuclear bomb, altering the cost-benefit
calculus would not be a deterrent, for the group would no longer be operating according to
an instrumentalist paradigm. A scenario whereby non-state actors acquired a nuclear
capability would not only threaten the security of the United States, but would destabilize
the Westphalian notion of the primacy of nation-states within the international system.
Therefore, the most important goal in counterterrorism should be to make WMD technology
and existing nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons more difficult to obtain. Succeeding
in this goal will reduce the probability of a catastrophe however, it will not eliminate the
lesser but nonetheless horrific destruction achievable through conventional weapons,
especially when creatively used as on 9/11. To make progress on this front, we must
continue to increase our understanding of how the varieties of terrorist and other
destructive groups operate, psychologically as well as politically and strategically.
Notes
i Mohammed Hafez, Why do Muslims Rebel, (Boulder, Colorado: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2003), p.
199.
ii Jeff Goodwin, ―Review Essay: What Must We Explain to Explain Terrorism,” Social Movement Studies,
Carfax Publishing, Taylor &Franklin Group, (October 2004), Vol. 3, No. 2.
iii Martha Crenshaw, ―Theories of Terrorism: Instrumental &Organizational Approaches,‖ located in
Inside Terrorist Organizations, ed. by David Rapoport, (New York: Columbia University Press, 1988),
pp. 27
iv Thomas Schelling, ―Thinking about Nuclear Terrorism,‖ International Security, (Spring 1983), Vol. 6
No. 4.
v David E. Kaplan and Andrew Marshall, the Cult at the End of the World, Crown Publishers, Inc, 1996,
p. 12.
vi David E. Kaplan, ―Aum Shinrikyo,‖ in Jonathan B. Tucker‘s Toxic Terror: Assessing Terrorist Use of
Chemical and Biological Weapons, (MA: MIT Press, 2000), p. 209.
vii Kyle B. Olson, ―Once and Future Threat?‖ Available from:
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol5no4/pdf/olson.pdf ,(last accessed on 30 Aug 06), p. 515.
viii Sage Publications, Aum Shinrikyo, located at
http://www.sagepub.com/Terrorism%20samples_2788.pdf, (last accessed on 30 Aug 06), p. 1.
ix Olson, ―Once and Future Threat?‖ p. 514
x Daniel A. Metraux, Aum Shinrikyo’s Impact on Japanese Society, (New York: The Edwin Mellen Press,
2000), p. 78.
xi Olson, ―Once and Future Threat?‖ pp. 514-515.
xii Ibid, p. 515.
xiii Sage Publications, Aum Shinrikyo, p. 1
xiv Gavin Cameron, Nuclear Terrorism, (Great Britain: MacMillan Press, 1999), 5.
xv Sara Daly, John Parachini, and William Rosenau, Aum Shinrikyo, and the Kinchasa Reactor, (Santa
Monica, CA: RAND, DB-458-AF, 2005), 13.
xvi Ibid., 12.
xvii Gavin Cameron, ―Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Prospects and Problems,‖ in The
New Terrorism by Andrew Tan and Kumar Ramakrishna, (Singapore: Eastern Universities Press,
2002), p. 63.

Cultic Studies Review, Vol. 5, No. 2, 2006, Page 59
xviii Cameron, ―Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Prospects and Problems,‖ p. 63.
xix Author‘s notes from an interview with Prof Gunaratna during the week of 10-15 May 05 in Ottawa,
Canada.
xx Olson, ―Once and Future Threat?‖ 515.
xxi Crenshaw, ―Theories of Terrorism: Instrumental and Organizational Approaches,‖ p. 26.
Xxii Donatella Della Porta, Social Movements, Political Violence, and the State, (New York: Cambridge
University Press, 1995), 157.
xxiii Della Porta, ―Introduction: On Individual Motivations in Underground Political Organizations,‖ 3-28.
xxiv Jackie Fowler, ―Aum Shinrikyo,‖ (17 July 05), University of Virginia,
http://religiousmovements.lib.virginia.edu/nrms/aums.html, (retrieved on 2 Sept 05).
xxv Walter Laqueur, ―Voices of Terror,‖ (NY: Reed Press, 2004), pp. 410-419.
xxvi Mark Sageman, Understanding Terror Networks, (PA: Penn Press, 2004), p. 20.
xxvii Donatella Della Porta, ―Left-Wing Terrorism in Italy,‖ found in Terrorism in Context, ed. by Martha
Crenshaw, (Pennsylvania, PA: State University Press, 1995), p. 149.
xxviii Audrey Kurth Cronin, Behind the Curve, International Security, Vol. 27, No. 3 (Winter 2002/03),
p. 45.
xxix Hafez, Why do Muslims Rebel, p. 200.
xxx Ibid, p. 200.
xxx i Hafez, M. (2004), ―Manufacturing Human Bombs: Strategy, Culture, and Conflict in the Making of
Palestinian Suicide Terrorism.‖ Available from: http://www.nijpcs.org/terror/ (last accessed on 30 Aug
06)
xxxii Robert Pape, ―The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism,‖ American Political Science Review, Vol.
97, No. 3 (2003), p. 2.
xxxiii Gavin Cameron, ―Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Prospects and Problems,‖ located
in The New Terrorism by Andrew Tan and Kumar Ramakrishna, (Eastern Universities Press: 2002), p.
53.
xxxi v Matthew Bunn and Anthony Wier, ―The Seven Myths of Nuclear Terrorism,‖ Journal of
Contemporary World Affairs, Current History, Vol. 104, No. 681 (April 2005), p. 154.
xxxv Mark Sageman, Understanding Terror Networks, p. 23.
xxxvi Kimberly McCloud, Gary A. Ackerman, and Jeffrey M. Bale, "Al-Qa`ida's WMD Activities," Monterey
Center for Nonproliferation Studies, http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/other/sjm_cht.htm. (retrieved on 30
Aug 06).
xxxvii Audrey K. Cronin, "Terrorist Motivations for Biological and Chemical Weapons Use," Congressional
Research Service, (28 Mar 03), http://www.fas.org/irp/crs/RL31831.pdf, 7.
xxxviii CNN, ―Insights TRANSCRIPTS‖, show originally aired on 19 Aug 02,
http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0208/19/i_ins.01.html retrieved at CNN‘s website on 12 May
05. NOTE: In 2002, CNN‘s Nic Robertson reported the discovery of over 250 videotapes prepared by
al-Qaeda that was apparently found in a house where bin Ladin had stayed.
xxxix Jeffery Bale et al, ―Ricin Found in London: An al-Qa‘ida Connection‖, (23 Jan 03), Monterey Center
for Nonproliferation Studies, http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/reports/ricin.htm (retrieved on 30 Aug 06).
xl Shelia MacVicar and Henry Schuster, ―European Terror Suspect got al-Qaeda Training, Sources Say,‖
6 Feb 03, http://edition.cnn.com/2003/US/02/06/sprj.irq.alqaeda.links/index.html (accessed 30 Aug
06).
xli Nuclear Threat Initiative, ―Details Emerge on Al-Qaeda Chemical Plot in Jordan,‖ 27 Apr 04,
http://www.nti.org/d_newswire/issues/2004_4_27.html, (accessed 30 Aug 06).