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unpredictable‖ and terrorist acts might occur as a result of internal group dynamics.iii The
group‘s ultimate decision to strike a Tokyo subway system was as much an attack on
Japan‘s political culture as it was an act by a desperate group. In contrast, al Qaeda‘s
methodical planning and extensive preparation reflect an instrumental approach where the
act of terrorism is that of strategic choice advancing collective values. According to
Crenshaw, such an organization ultimately fails when the group is unable to reach its
political objectives or when the cost of conducting such terrorist acts exceeds any
foreseeable benefits.
Aum Shinrikyo
One of today‘s abiding fears is that 9/11 was only the first act of ―megaterrorism‖ and that
those that follow might use weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Authors such as Graham
Allison, Bruce Hoffman, Walter Laqueur, and others have written about the prospects of
such actions. In fact, Thomas Schelling in 1979 said:
Sometime in the 1980s an organization that is not a national government
may acquire a few nuclear weapons…. By ―organization‖ I mean a political
movement, a government in exile, a separatist or secessionist party, a
military rebellion, adventurers from the underground or the underworld, or
even some group of people merely bent on showing that it can be done.iv
Schelling‘s statement implies that distinctions exist among terrorist groups. If terrorist
groups are distinctive in their motives, it would stand to reason that in order to deter or
influence such organizations, one must also be able to isolate and differentiate the group‘s
goals and objectives from their rhetoric. For example, in comparing the Japanese terrorist
cult Aum Shinrikyo to al Qaeda, we find distinctions in orientation and ideology, yet both
have used religious extremism to serve ideological objectives.
Before the events of 9/11, Aum Shinrikyo unleashed fears of extreme terror with the release
of sarin gas in a Japanese subway in 1995. Led by a religious mystic, Shoko Asahara,
followers of the movement had come to believe that ―Armageddon will come at the end of
this century and…only a merciful, godly race will survive. The leader of this race will
emerge in Japan.‖v Asahara, characterized as a charismatic, highly ambitious individual,
methodically built a cult that, at its peak, reached 40,000 members worldwide with an
estimated 30,000 followers in Russia and other areas, including Australia, Sri Lanka, and
the United States.vi The group capitalized on millennial visions and apocalyptic predictions
to frame their group‘s doctrine, which was deeply influenced by the works of Nostradamus,
whose work serves as a cornerstone of the group‘s teachings.vii Aum‘s followers actively
recruited students and professionals in the fields of medicine, science, computers,
engineering, and other technical areas. Asahara‘s charisma and message seemed to have a
great appeal to many who felt alienated by the industrialized, secular, and conformist
aspects of Japanese society.viii
At its peak, it is estimated that Aum Shinrikyo‘s worth was as much as $1.5 billion.ix With
such great financial resources, Aum Shinrikyo invested capital to support high-tech, state-
of-the-art laboratories and funded its own research, circumventing restrictions normally
associated with larger corporate research laboratories.x In addition to collecting monies
through donations, tithing, and sales of religious materials, Aum conducted seminars and
courses in the cult‘s teachings, charging hundreds to tens of thousands of dollars to
participate in these sessions. In fact, Aum Shinrikyo diversified its enterprises by running a
chain of restaurants in Tokyo as well as a computer-manufacturing firm that assembled and
sold computers in Japan with parts imported from Taiwan.xi Other more surreptitious
practices included the manufacturing of illegal drugs, which was supported by the Japanese
mafia (the Yakuza) with a marketing agreement. Further, Aum engaged in a practice
referred to as ―green mail‖ where Aum would extort community leaders by threatening to

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establish a ―branch‖ office or school within their local community. By engaging in such
practices, the cult succeeded in gaining leverage through extortion, coercion, theft, and
murder as forms of fund-raising for the cult.xii
Asahara and his closest followers planned to defend themselves against the coming
Armageddon by creating a formidable arsenal that would enable Aum Shinrikyo to survive
and become the most powerful group in the world. Despite high expectations and several
attempts at local elections, Asahara and other leaders failed to gain a seat in the Japanese
parliament. Due to these unmet expectations about changing Japan‘s political culture,
Aum‘s leadership became more radical and the group‘s goals began to alter. Asahara would
later preach that it was ―the duty of Aum members to hasten Armageddon,‖ and subsequent
efforts to attack the Japanese legislature also were indicative of Aum‘s disappointments with
the democratic system.xiii
While the group‘s most notorious act involved the release of sarin gas, Aum attempted to
acquire various types of other weapons, including biological, nuclear, and radiological
material. The cult‘s close relationship with followers in Russia seemingly gave it the
opportunity to leverage its vast wealth and contacts with Russian security forces and the
black-market to acquire weapons-grade fissile material yet it failed.iv Aum remained open
to all alternatives for possessing a WMD capability, but in the end chose to develop chemical
weapons. Yet, the cult‘s failure to acquire a nuclear capability was not from a lack of desire
or effort. Aum invested a great deal of time and resources in its attempt to purchase
advanced weapons. According to a recent RAND study, Hayakawa Kiyohide, a senior Aum
leader, made eight trips to Russia in 1994 and with a budget of $15 million sought to
acquire a nuclear bomb.xv
Despite efforts to bribe senior Russian officials with exclusive access to foreign technologies
markets, Aum failed in its quest to purchase a nuclear weapon.xvi Aum actively sought to
recruit scientists and employees from Russia‘s Kurchatov Institute and Moscow State
University to join the cult.xvii At one point, Aum leaders requested but were subsequently
denied a meeting with the then Russian Energy Minister, Victor Mikhailov, to discuss the
purchase of a nuclear warhead. Undaunted, the group later pursued efforts to build a
nuclear weapon by collecting required materials and mining uranium in Western Australia
from land purchased by the group.xviii Their objective was to construct a bomb in Japan with
plans to enrich the uranium through the use of laser technology. Despite Aum‘s vast wealth
and contacts, Shoko Asahara and his followers eventually abandoned their efforts and chose
to pursue a less difficult, less costly chemical option, which was also less destructive.
Between 1990 and 1995 and prior to the Tokyo subway attack, Aum made several attempts
at chemical attacks, but with limited results. Prior to the subway attack, Asahara and his
core leaders discovered that, local authorities and law enforcement personnel had plans to
conduct police raids against cult facilities and offices. Up to this point, Aum had succeeded
in exploiting Japan‘s extensive legal protections for religious organizations, which enabled
Aum to operate in a highly permissive environment without much interference from the
state.xix But by March 20, 1995, Aum‘s leaders realized that the Japanese authorities‘ case
against their group threatened its leaders. Asahara became convinced that his arrest along
with other senior cult members was imminent. He believed that the only strategy that
remained was a pre-emptive attack to strike fear as a last act in order to ensure the group‘s
survival. Despite having limited success in its previous efforts with chemical agents, Aum
believed that a successful attack would have enough psychological impact to secure the
group‘s future. In the end, what remains clear is that Aum displayed a great deal of resolve
in its effort to employ tactics that would cause mass casualties.xx
Asahara‘s fear of Japanese authorities compelled him and his inner circle to go deeper
underground. From Aum‘s perspective, this act improved the cult‘s chances for survival